>> romney and ryan. >> thank you. >> you have to say it the right way. >> chemistry is amang. >> stuart and i, actually. >> sorry. >> dana: that is brutal. >> that was rough. >> i'm grammatically correct in most occasions. >> dana: greg, tell the truth. i was right. >> greg: it's me and stuart. >> bret: four straight years of trillion-dollar deficit and a possible recession ahead. fiscal warning. how will it factor in as president obama tries to get four more years. this is "special report." ♪ ♪ >> bret: good evening. i'm bret baier. the countdown clock to the election continues to roll backward one day at a time. while the federal deficit continues to surge out of control. on pace to hit $1.1 trillion this fiscal year. that poses a major survival issue for a president. coming up for re-election in

less than 11 weeks. chief white house correspondent ed henry reports. >> it's good to be back in nevada. >> four more years! >> reporter: as president obama made his case in another key battleground -- >> the fact is that everything i've done has been focused on how we rebuild that strong middle class. >> back in washington, much harsher verdict of the fiscal mess. congressional budget office protecting a president who vowed to cut the deficit in half will see it exceed $1 trillion for the fourth straight year. >> we don't know how long it can go on for. if leaders fail to stop massive tax increases and automatic spending cuts at the end of the year, there will be short-term deficit relief but it could spark another recession. >> if allowed to occur, the sharp reduction in taxes and -- in central spending and increases in taxes will lead to a dramatic reduction in the federal deficit.

trimming it by almost $500 billion next year. that would be a significant tightening of fiscal policy and probably lead to a recession early next year. >> reporter: while the president said nothing about the report, his aides jumped on it to point out the so-called fiscal cliff could be avoided. if house republicans join democrats in extending the current tax rate for middle class saying they are willing to hold the middle class hostage until we give tax cut to millionaires and billionaires. tax cuts we can't afford. republican mitt romney wants all the bush tax rate extented and charge, "today's cbo report is another indictment of president obama economic policies that resulted in overspending, increasing debt and growing financial burden on the next generation. just one day after vice president biden declared the middle class is coming back. >> they have been ravaged, they have been ravaged. but they're starting to come back. we helped them keep their

homes a their healthcare. >> reporter: talk of a comeback may be dampened by the federal reserve. newly released minutes from the recent minute show many fed officials think action will be needed fairly soon until incoming information points to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery. the cbo also stressed if congress can get a debt deal, a big if, we'd avoid a recession but still be on the verge of a fiscal crisis. right now, debt is headed for 90% of gdp by 2022. bret? >> bret: ed henry traveling with the president in las vegas. thank you. republicans already had plenty of ammunition to fire off at the president today. chief political correspondent carl cameron is traveling with governor romney. at a bettendorf manufacturing plant in battleground state of ohio, mitt romney made no mention of congressional budget office, dire prediction that the economy will slip in a deep recession if washington does not halt huge automatic spending cuts next year and he

described the president's record. >> he said cut the deficit in half, he doubled it. he said he would get people good jobs and we have gone 42 straight months with unemployment over 8%. 23 million americans out of work or stopped looking for work. inexcusable. >> at a you did build it rally mocking the president for saying businesses were built by government not business people, romney urged them to find obama supporters and persuade them tax and spend is not the solution. >> we have to get the people who voted for obama last time to vote for me this time to win. >> he was in roanoke, virginia, where president first said if you have a business, you didn't build that. >> we have people out of work struggling to find work. they said the private sector is doing fine. we need more government. this is president obama's imaginary recovery. >> vice president joe biden was in detroit and ridiculed as imaginary the g.o.p. tickets rhetoric about saving the middle class. >> we inherited a deficit, a

bill, for $1 trillion before the president sat behind his desk. and middle class, that was devastated. and now, it's amazing. they discovered the middle class. and they care about it. >> reporter: back in roanoke, ryan met with virginia baker chris mcmurray so ticked off at the president's remark he turned down a visit from vice president joe biden last week. >> we are gathered here today to send the message to the obama-biden team that we did build it. >> reporter: in tampa, today, the republican national convention announced that it's changing the schedule to have the roll call vote from the state delegation putting romney's name in the nomination moved up. rather than held later in the week, they'll do it on monday. in part to get ahead of any potential storm problems with the possibility of hurricane isaac coming. as well as dealing with any shenanigans that might happen

from ron paul supporters. ron paul campaign and delegations are speaking positively about the process but it are folks on the perimeter who could make some noise and they figure they can get it out of way because it's a lengthy process and leave open the big-time production value of the big night with the big speakers later in the week. >> bret: we'll bring the rain slickers down to tampa. okay. i guess you said yes. >> and the big boots. >> bret: c'ya. sick analysis that has correctly picked the winner of every presidential election since 1980 is forecasting a victory for mitt romney. the university of colorado's model factors in state by state economic conditions such as unemployment rate, and per capita income. it predicts governor romney will finish with 52.9% of the popular vote. and about 320 electoral votes. needs 270 to win. the study has president obama losing almost all the so-called swing states. to finish with only 218

electoral college votes. 47.1% of the popular. vothat same analysis predicted the winer of every race for the white house for the last 32 years. if president obama does lose in november, it will despite relentless attack on republican plans for medicare. chief national correspondent jim angle looks at the facts and the fiction. >> reporter: so the ryan medicare plan has bipartisan support. obama campaign went after it early and often. >> their plan would shorten the life of medicare. and end medicare as we know it, because they turn in to avoucher system. >> actually, the ryan plant would effect no one 55 and over. in 2023, private insurers could bid for senior health insurance alongside traditional medicare. it would offer premiums equal to the second lowest bidder and update every year. meaning seniors would have two choices of plans at no cost.

>> a senior would have that option of taking that plan or a cheaper plan to pocket the savings or taking a more expensive plan and paying the difference. it's not going to be an entirely different structure, it will be very much building upon things that are already there. >> in part the plans would have to offer the same benefit medicare does. especially now 25% of the seniors use private plans within medicare called medicare advantage. because they cover more of the cost of supplemental plans called medi gap. >> they will often sign up for medicare advantage plan because they get comprehensive coverage without the need for a second plan. >> same advantage in the ryan plan. nevertheless, the president argues seniors would get stuck with the bill. >> they would get a voucher to buy private insurance. if it doesn't keep up with costs that's the seniors problem. >> they couldn't quantify the saving from competition in an earlier ryan plan and assumed the cost of private plan would increase as much as healthcare generally. so ryan changed the plan, so much so it's now cosponsored

by liberal democratic senator ron widen of oregon who believes the current system is doomed to fail. >> a steady diet of benefit reduction for senior citizens and cost shifting. that will take place until the medicare is threatened. >> the idea is the come pettive process would lead to cheaper insurance for seniors at the same level of benefits they enjoy. >> since medicare promised tens of trillions more in benefits that it can pay, senator ryan and widen argue it must be changed in order to survive. bret? >> bret: latest ryan plan, though, is different than it seems. the one that the president is campaigning against. >> absolutely. the president is talking about the first ryan plan. which cbo couldn't score because how do you figure out how much competition will save? what they did is he changed it, got widen on board and the cbo hasn't scored this one but

it's clearly much simpler and much more attractive to democrats. >> bret: all right, jim. thank you. one factor in the presidential race is absolutely no one could have predicted is the uproar over comments about rape by the g.o.p. senate candidate in missouri. correspondent doug mckelway tells us despite urgings from party leaders that he withdraw, todd akin says he is in it to win it, probably. >> when asked in an interview whether he would end his candidacy by the last remaining legal deadline by september 25, embattled u.s. senate candidate todd akin left open a crack in an exit door. >> i'll never say everything that can possibly happen. i don't know the future. >> political analyst says the statement speaks volume. >> the fact he is unlikely to get significant financial support and his chances of winning don't look good, he will probably bow out. >> for now, defiant akin is staying in. project -- rejecting the chorus of calls from the highest level in his own part party.

>> i'll keep it between us. i agree with the rest of the people from the missouri delegation. >> akin's obcitynance is having an im -- akin's obcitynance is having impact. he makes no exception for rape and incest. richards ofe shuffling their planned parenthood scheduled to speak. national poll show a significant shift in abortion views with a majority of americans now pro-life. undetermined whether the outrage will resonate in missouri. >> when we ran for the house, akin was a conservative candidate who came out of nowhere and won this election. based on a group of tight knit

church-going supporters. todd has always been with them, not with anyone else. >> 39% of the missouri voters describe themselves as born again evangelicals a group for forgiveness is a tenet and abortion is considered murder. their opinion may decide his decision-making from the pressure from his party. >> bret: thank you. that bring us to tonight's text to vote question. will akin withdraw from the missouri senate race? text sr1 to 36288 for yes, he will. sr2, for no. he'll stay in. results a little later. up next, from bad to worse. because of the drought. you've been busy for a dead man.

after you jumped ship in bangkok, i thought i'd lost you. surfing is my life now. but who's going to ....

tell the world that priceline has even faster, easier ways to save you money. . . on hotels, flights & cars? you still have it. i'll always have it. so this is it? we'll see where the waves take me. sayonara, brah! humans -- sometimes life trips us up. and sometimes, we trip ourselves up, but that's okay. at liberty mutual insurance we can "untrip" you as you go through your life with personalized policies and discounts when you need them most. just call... and speak with a licensed representative about saving on your policy when you get married, move into a new house... [crash!] or add a car to your policy. don't forget to ask about saving up to 10% when you combine your auto d home insurance

wi liberty mutual. security, coverage, and savings. all the things humans need to make our beautifully imperfect world a little lesimperfect. call... and lock in your rate for 12 months. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? >> bret: nearly 2,000

firefighters are battling the blaze that have destroyed 50 buildings and threatens 3,500 others in northern california. the fire is one of many burning across the west right now. the worst drought in decade continues to ravage farmers and ranchers throughout much of the country. tonight, correspondent alicia acuna show us how people living off the dry land are handling it. >> western ranchers are selling off catle in hopes of surviving the worst drought in decades. [ auctioneer ] >> starting with the oldest and going down, trying to sell the older cows. >> leonard ball's family ranched northern colorado since 1914. this year's lack of rain that stunted grass on the range came at a bad time. >> most guys are trying to gain back what we lost in 2001. 3 and the other dry years. >> from what i'm hearing from the ranchers out and about,

this is the worst. ever. that covers a big swath of the country. >> it's all made worse by skyrocketing hay and corn prices. >> we have a lot of dead corn. >> corn farmers have been hit particularly hard. we are in the business to produce. we're not doing a good job producing right now. that is a tough life of people in ag anymore. >> consumers are next. >> absolutely. you know, we could see a scenario where the price of inflation for food could go up 10 to 15%. this is one of the most serious price increases we've seen in some time. >> commodities analyst phil flynn said it won't hit pocketbook until fall which could mean bigger implication. >> we know there is an election in november. at the end of the day, price spike could come at an inopportune time for people wanting to hang on to jobs in washington. >> not all ranchers are

thinning the herd. a in the rooney ranch, the ow owner said he didn't have to sell because he saw the disaster coming and bought extra hay. >> bret: does the drought from v you concerned about rising food costs? let me know what you think. a big loss for the administration. federal appeals court rejected a plan to limit emissions from the coal fired power plant. a plan that would have forced many of the facilities to shut down. home sales were up 2.3% in july. the first increase in three months. the stocks were mixed. still ahead, the battle to save war veterans once they come home. first, double trouble with the 9/11 terror trial.

>> bret: capitol hill republicans are furious, they have one of the key figures of operation "fast and furious" is being allowed to keep his government salary an earn another six-figure check from private company. atf official bill mcman is on leave from day job but working for j.p. morgan. the idea is to let him qualify for the full government pension. lawmakers say this is against the rules. a military judge says he has the right to order the accused fort hood shooter to shave off his beard before the murder trial. major hassan says he has grown it to express muslim faith but the army rules prohibit beards. it's up to appeals court.

jurors involved in the trial of some of the 9/11 terror suspects with will evacuated from guantanamo bay. tropical storm could pass over cuba and to tampa. get more on the military ramifications. catherine herridge is live there tonight. good evening. >> with tropical storm isaac gaining strength and heading to guantanamo bay, what we anticipate from the commander here is that he did make the recommendation to evacuate reporters and other nonessential personnel. >> an easy call for human lif life. we are redo the commission. but we can't redo human life. the longer i wait to make that decision the more risk i put

my people at while they are trying to get everything done. >> preparing for a hurricane at the base is long, systemic process. they shut down the beach it and the bay and the roads. and even the power. military personnel are being told to gather food and water. to inspect their assigned shelter. the detainees, including khalid sheikh mohammed is told to shelter in place. this is the second delay for the pretrial hearings this week. on tuesday, a baltimore train derailment knocked out fiber optic line to provide internet service to navy base and the office of the military commission that jeff sees the trial at guantanamo lost 80% of the service. the military judge gave the it was one more day to prepare. late today, we spoke to some of the 9/11 families who travel to guantanamo to by in court for the pretrial hearing. they are disappointed with the delay. one said what is a few more days or few more weeks. we have waited now for 11

years. >> bret: catherine herridge live at guantanamo bay, cuba. safe travels. the government is urging police across the country to be on the look-out for hints of possible disruption to the political convention in tampa and charlotte, north carolina. bulletin from the f.b.i. and homeland security mentions possible violent tactics by anarchists, trying to shut down roads or transit systems. the afghan government is blaming the wave of so-called green on blue attacks on infiltration by foreign spy agencies. 40 nato personnel, including dozen of u.s. soldiers have been killed in 3 # insider attacks by afghan this year. they are promising to tighten the veteran process for army and police recruits. british prime minister david cameron is adding to president obama's warning that the u.s. of chemical weapon by syria regime could lead to military intervention, saying today, the u.s. and great britain agree that the use or the threat of the use would

trigger military action. activists say syrian troops shelled two damascus districts and went house to house to kill 23 suspected rebels today. opposition forces and regular citizens are facing death from above. steve harrigan has that story tonight from the war zone. >> with government forces stretched thin, across multiple front, assad rehome is relying on air power. they are used to bomb rebel positions in aleppo and damascus, but increasingly in the rural north of the country. where the military objectives are hard to fathom. it's cused a flood of refugees, families scared of the bombs and angry that no one is helping them. "look at us," he says. "these are our families. there are planes over our heads. we're just trying to live." the mums tripled in the past week. 2,000 refugees a day are

trying to escape north to turkey three. generation of family members take shelter in fields, abandon houses and mosques. as they wait at the border check point for days. in the heat, the young suffer the most. "i have seven children, we left everything to run," he says. all we have is the clothes on our backs. number of syrians in turkey climb toward 100,000, the government may establish safety zone for refugees inside the territory. it could be a first step to establish a secure corridor to provide rebel fighters in partial no-fly zoneful right now, rebel fighters and civilians have no defense against the government bombers and attack helicopters. bret? >> bret: steve harrigan in turkey tonight. thank you. don't forget tonight's text to vote question. will todd akin withdraw from the missouri senate race? text sr1 to 36288 for yes.

sr2 for no. results shortly. grapevine is next. ♪ [ male announcer ] to hold a patent that has changed the modern world... would define you as an innovator. to hold more than one patent of this caliber... would define you as a true leader. to hold over 80,000... well, that would make you... the creato of the 2012 mercedes-benz e-class... quite possibly the most advanced luxury sedan ever. ♪ join mercedes-benz usa on facebook for the best summer sweepstakes. join mercedes-benz usa on facebook the words are going this way-there's no way. oh, the lights came on.

isn't technology supposed to make life easier? at chase we're pioneering innovations that make banking simple. deposit a check with a photo. pay someone with an email. and bank seamlessly with our award-winning mobile app. take a step forward... and chase what matters. a 90% smaller needle. announcing fluzone intradermal vaccine, a 90% smaller needle, wow that's...short. to learn more talk to your health care pvider. [ female announcer ] fluzone intrarmal vaccine is fda approved for 18-64 year olds. it shouldn't be given to anyone with a severe allergic reaction to a vaccine component including eggs, egg products or a prior dose of influenza vaccine. tell your doctor if you'vever had guillian-barre syndrome. redness, firmness, swelling and itchingt the injection site occur more frequently than with flone vaccine. other common side effec include pain, ad ache, fatigue and muscle aches. if u have other symptoms or problems following vaination

call your doctor immediately. vaccination may not protect everyone. 90% shorter please. i have a callback monday. [ female announcer ]isit fluzone.com or these locations to find fluzone intradermal vaccine. tiny needle, big protection. ♪

>> bret: now some fresh pickings from the political grapevine. nearly a half-million taxpayers dollars spent on commercials touting the obama administration green jobs evident. the labor department contract used stimulus funds to air commercials on two prime time msnbc shows. the add promoted job corps training specifically aimed at

environmentally friendly careers. the official contract shows a whopping zero jobs were created. zero. labor officials say it was an important outreach tool. critics say it's just another example of wasteful funding. a watchdog group saying, "taxpayers would be a lot happier at the end of the day to see a completed road rather than a bunch of ads on cable television." weighty allegations around the sunshine state regarding republican congressman david riveera. they say he helped run a shadow campaign for a democrat failed primary bid. in an effort to knock off another democrat. that could be illegal. a vendor said riveira contacted him and wanted list of voters that were sent mailers in campaign. the vendor said he spoke many times with rivera and copied him on e-mail with the flyers.

paid for with envelope of cash, that insiders say is unusual. the cam pape says the e-mail was a mistake and the candidate has no connection with the stern ad campaign. finally, ohio will be tough to win for either candidate but out's tough to spell. romney staffer tweeted this photo lining up with the students with caption of word of advice to barack obama. int's o-h-i-o. that has 18 electoral votes. not o-i-h-o. at some point the group must have realized their error because the obama campaign tweeted the correctly spelled photo later on. you will remember the romney campaign got a share of ribbing for an app that spelled "america" amerciia" this year. michelle obama announced a new commitment by companies to train veteran and military spouses.

they face many channels, including finding a job. we look at how one vet is trying to lighten the load. >> america launched war in iraq, adam was there driving equipment for the u.s. army. now he is working full-time at veteran homestead, community of 20 homes in central massachusetts designed to help young me and women with difficulties recovering from battle. providing housing, counseling and physical therapy at little or no cost to the vets. he says he has been sober nearly a year after almost losing everything. >> yesterday, was 11 months for me. i couldn't get 11 minutes before. it was bad. this place, i believe, saved my life. saved my family. >> we have a physical therapist. >> veteran homestead built with the privately raised

funds by leslie light foot, am forearmy med nick the vietnam war, with three kids of her own who served multiple tours in iraq and afghanistan. she says she started the non-profit organization because she has seen first hand vets can't return home and expect to just pick up where they left off. >> what inspired you to do this in the first place? >> it needed to be done. >> that simple? >> that simple. every time there is a hole in the net, the safety net, you develop something to plug that gap. >> her five other facilities are the veteran victory farm in new hampshire, former service members with severe emotional or psycholog call issues or addiction getting ary cultural therapy, caring for animals and crops while rebuilding their lives. >> how long can you keep doing this? >> as long as it takes. >> they described it ooze environment that nurtures success. she hopes to extent it nationwide.

>> bret: rick, thank you. inspiring story. some very bad numbers on the economy today. what they will mean for the presidential election. we'll get some answers from fox all-stars after a quick break. people like options. when you take geico, you can call them anytime you feel like saving money. it don't matter, day or night. use your computer, your smartphone, your tablet, whatever. the point is, you have options. oh, how convenient. hey. crab cakes, what are you looking at? geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. with a wide variety, you can mix and match all day. scampi, grilled, the fried -- there's nothing better. [ male announcer ] at last, red lobster's endlesshrimp is back, but only for a limid time, for just $1. try as much as you like, any way you like, like new parmesan crusted srimp or new teriyaki grilled shrimp,

all with salad and unlimited cheddar bay biscuits, for just $14.99. [ ryan ] they can try everythin they love it. i'm ryan isabell. i'm a server for red lobster, and i sea food differently

[ male announcer ] it started long ago. the joy of giving something everything you've got. it takes passion. and it's not letting up anytime soon. at unitedhealthcare insurance company, we understand that commitment. and always have. so does aarp, an organization serving the needs of americans 50 and over for generations. so it's no surprise millions have chosen an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement plans, they help cover some of the expenses medicare doesn't pay. and save you up to thousands in out-of-pocket costs. to find out more, request your free decision guide.

call or go online today. after all, when you're going the distance, it's nice to have the experience and commitment to go along with you. keep dreaming. keep doing. go long. if lawmakers do not reduce the deficit sharply in 2013, perhaps because of the near term economic consequence, they will need to reduce it later. at some point we will need to adopt policies to require people to pay significantly more in taxes, accept substantially less in government benefits and services, or both. >> bret: doug elmendorf talking about what happens at the end of the year. cbo projecting today deficits for this coming fiscal year, 2019, to be $1.1 trillion. as you take a look at the graph, deficits under

president obama. this is a president who vowed to cut the deficit in half when he came to office. he will see it exceed $1 trillion according to the cbo for the fourth straight year. as you take a look at the next graph, this is essentially what elemdorf is talking about. if the current law stays in place, the a terptive fiscal scenario, there you see everything stays the same. they pass everything to stay the same as it is right now. the deficit is roughly $1.1 -- that should be $1.1 trillion, not billion. that should be $1.1 trillion. the growth, gdp is 1.7. unemployment at 8. the 2012 baseline is really what happens if the sequestration goes in to place. this is at the end of the year. if the tax cuts are not extented, the bush era tax cut, then you see the deficit go down, growth go in the negative. and unemployment shoot up. again, that is $641 billion

and $1.1 trillion roughly. let's bring in the panel. steve hayes, senior writer for "weekly standard." a.b. stoddard associate editor of the hill. syndicated columnist, charles krauthammer. steve, look at the numbers and you can see what elmendorf said today and put it in political perspective. >> it's scary. it's a virtual certainty that nothing will be done about this before the election. everybody is operating as if nothing will be done because it doesn't make sense politically for either party to do this. the problem with the fiscal cliff among others including the fact it would end us in recession as suggested, mainly cut in discretionary spending and mainly to defense. it may have a short-term impact on the budget trajectory but it doesn't solve the long-term fiscal problems. it does nothing on entitlement. it really doesn't channel the structures of the entitlement driving the national debt.

it's a short-term hit we'd take. driver us in recession as a near certainty. it doesn't do anything to solve our problem. this is exactly the kind of thing that people send their congressmen and women to washington to fix. nobody wants to do anything about it. >> the white house response is that the house and republicans in congress are holding middle class, middle class hostage to give tax cuts to millionaires and billionaires. tax cuts they say that the u.s. can't afford. the president's now banking on this plan for his election. >> yeah, this is one of the most unbelievable storylines of the 2019 election cycle. president obama has twice in public on the record argued against raising taxes and economic downturn. there is no question that he has made this case. he cede it would hurt the economy if we raised taxes in an economic downturn. he said it twice. in 2009 and again in 2010. he is now runnin running with ts

the centerpiece of the economic message. he is running on something that he himself said would hurt the u.s. economy. where is the national news media asking him questions about this? this should be the first question he gets at every press conference. mr. president, why are you running on something that you have said specifically would do damage to the u.s. economy? and he is not being asked the question. >> bret: a.b.? >> well, let's get back to the fiscal cliff which is not the fault of the republicans but not the fault of theteams either. both parties are accountable. everyone at home watching should recall that they both supported this deal. it was right from the start with a triggered death trap of cuts. >> bret: let's -- just one second. for people sitting at home. the reason it came to this, it went to a super committee. because the white house and house republicans, speaker boehner couldn't come together on a big deal, deficit and debt cutting that included tax increases on democratic side and spending cut and entitlement reform on republican side. we ended up in a super committee. they couldn't get it done.

that was the threat, if they couldn't, you would get sequestration, major cuts. separately all the tax increase tied to end bush era tax cut. fair? in a simple way? >> they knew the time to fix these across the board, nonsensable draconian cuts would be at the time that the bush tax cuttings were expiring because the whole thing was a head fake and people that signed on the deal at the cliff of default in august of 2011 knew in both parties they could rewrite this if they had to at december this last minute. after the 2012 presidential election. >> bret: isn't that a crazy way to run government? >> it's incredible. i'm obsessed with the fiscal cliff. i wish i could tell you that members when you talk to hem are any further from their denial or closer to the reality of how quickly they have to forge consensus from november 7 to christmas eve. they are not. the new rumor is they will let

everything expire and set in on december 31 because that way, five days later they can reinstate some of the tax cut if not all of them so they are tax cutters instead of people who raised taxes. >> bret: you're sitting on the couch, charles, at home and you have to sit at the table and do your budget do you look at washington and say what is going on there? >> well, this is kind of crazy way to do business. i feel strange equanimity about the cliff. i'd like to get my shorts in a twist. i can't make myself. only two options. obama wins or romney wins in november. if obama wins, elmendorf warning is useful one. everybody knows if nothing happens we're going over a cliff and have a recession. assume obama win, he doesn't want to have a recession or a worse economy starting off a second term than he had in the first. assuming the republicans retain the house, a good

assumption. he has the come to a compromise. exactly like the kind he did after the shellacking he took in 2010. where they worked out a deal. if romney wins he will simply announce on the day after he is elected if the problem isn't solved in the lame duck, as soon as he gets in office, reverse retroactively everything that happens on january 1. this does assume that republicans win the senate. if romney wins the white house he will likely win the senate. although we have a missouri akin issue. >> bret: which we will talk about next in panel. >> assume if you have enough to win the presidency you probably have enough to win 51 seats in the senate. he will announce retro undoing of this stuff, six-month extex and work out real ryan like tax an entitlement reform. it sleep well at night. >> bret: if it's president

romney -- >> no. either way. about other issues but as to the cliff, either way, if romney or obama are elected we don't go over a cliff. >> what incentive will obama have to work with house republicans once he is given re-election? >> because it's the house republicans sit on their hands and you can't enact anything unless they agree, then obama has what elmendorf reported. a crash in the economy, 9% unemployment, second recession. obama does not want to start a second term with a ruined economy. it makes no sense. he will work out the same deal he worked out with mcconnell in 2010. >> after winning instead of losing? >> bret: they could break the republicans if they win with a mandate from the u.s. people -- >> there won't be a mandate for obama or romney. >> under the constitutional system he is not a dictator.

he can't enact a mandate unless the house agrees. if the republicans hold the house as they held in 2011, he can't act without republicans and therefore he will have to work out a compromise as he did with mitch mcconnell. >> bret: okay. for charles, it's a fiscal hill. >> you don't need -- >> bret: for the others it's a fiscal cliff. >> you don't need ambien. >> bret: are the democrats rewriting the convention plans because of the todd akin situation? [ kate ] most women may not be properly absorbing the calcium they take because they don't take it with food. switch to citracal maximum plus d. it's the only calcium supplement that can be taken with or without food. that's why my doctor recommends citracal maximum. it's all about absorption.

are you saying that you are in no matter what? you are not going to get out before the september 25 deadline? even it appears you are going

to lose and cost republicans possibly control of the senate? >> well, george, i'm never going to say everything that could possibly happen. i don't know the future. i've made the decision to stay in because i i believe we can win this race. there is such a strong contrast between me and my opponent. >> the democratic party, the obama campaign, and many in what we call the main stream media are trying to make this, try og make a lot of this issue arguing that it represents the republican party war against women. >> bret: democrats jumping on u.s. senate candidate akin's comment about "legitimate rape." you heard he left the door open a little bit about a possible exit before september 25. he is in it right now. back with the panel. charles, what about this use of this by democrats and possibly at the convention, by the look of speakers just announced, whether it was timed or changed we don't really know. >> look, i think the democrats, see an opening

hehere. the economy want to talk about anything but the economy. he wants to talk about sorm issues. here he wants to widen the gender gap which is already yawning. a double-edge sword. if they succeed in making akin the poster child of the republicans, obviously this is going to help them. but akin, how open can you be about the entire republican establishment? from romney and ryan to leaders in the senate and the house. every living republican senator from the state of missouri asking the guy to get out. how much does it take to understand that this guy is a pariah in the party that doesn't speak for anyone? it requires the collaboration of the main stream media not to make the point that this guy speaks for no one but himself. i'm not sure how it will be adjudicated by the media. i don't have high hopes of them making the point. >> bret: a.b., sometimes it gets lost the perspective of

pro-life and pro-choice of broad issue in the nation. recent gallup poll, pro-life is 50%. pro-choice is 41%. if you obviously democrats are taking this and running with it. but in perspective, pro-life is still a powerful issue for republicans across the nation, despite what the senate candidate from missouri said. >> which is why there is a potential next week in tampa at the republican national convention, the moment at which romney needs to take the opportunity to introduce himself to the voters who have not yet paid attention who might still be persuadable and focus on the economic record of president obama. there is potential for pro-life forces in the party who feel that todd akin has been thrown under the bus to create a divisive distraction. that won't help mitt romney. paul ryan signed on the akin legislation that included language describing forcible rape as different from date

rape and statutory rape. today he says rape is rape. this is a problem for romney and ryan. it's not about abortion. that is the problem. it is such a large narrative for the democrats to run with. to say this is now about rape and contraception. and any association mitt romney has, connection he has to this level of ignorance is dangerously -- is dangerous politically for him. he is connected to this guy. >> bret: steve, quickly. >> the act that she is talking about the no taxpayer funding for abortion act that included 11 democratic cosponsors and passed the house 251-179. including indiana senate candidate democrat joe donnelly. this is not a problem. >> because it didn't include that language. >> it didn't include that language. >> it will make a great ad. >> the reason the language was included the first place is distinguish taxpayer funding for abortion for violent rape and for statutory rape. that is to say if a 1-year-old -- if a 19-year-old high school senior impregnated

his girlfriend who was 16, would taxpayers then be on the hook to pay for that? >> bret: there is more to talk about. whistle. >> it's not extreme. >> bret: throw the flag. "special report" online will continue this discussion. later on. that's it for the panel. stay tuned for more on the 2012 campaign speeches. are you okay, babe? i'm fine. ♪

♪ ♪ with a subaru you can always find a way. announcer: love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru. until i got a job in the big apple. becoming a fulltime indoor cat wasn't easy for atti. but he had purina cat chow indoor. he absolutely loved it. and i knew he was getting everything he needed to stay healthy indoors. and after a couple of weeks, i knew we were finally home! [ female announcer ] purina cat chow indoor. and for a delicious way to help maintain a healthy weight, try new purina cat chow healthy weight. introducing share everything. unlimited talk. unlimited text.

tap into a single pool of shareable data and add up to 10 different devices, including smartphones and tablets. the first plan of its kind. share everything. only from verizon. get $100 off select motorola 4g lte smartphones like the droid razr. and what they said is amazing. review 5-hour energy over 73 percent who reviewed 5-hour energy

said they would recommend a low calorie energy supplement to their healthy patients who use energy supplements. seventy-three percent. 5-hour energy has four calories and it's used over nine million times a week. is 5-hour energy right for you? ask your doctor. we already asked 3,000. >> bret: we asked you tonight will todd akin withdraw from the senate race. 57 percent said no, 47 percent said no he will stay in it finally tonight vice president biden is campaigning in florida during the g.o.p. convention. republicans do it, too. it's called bracketing going to the place where your opponent is, battleground state, perhaps. it may be starting to get a little too close for comfort. >> as you see the president comes through on his bus tour, you might ask him the same question that i'm getting asked from people all around america and that is where are the jobs,